Net operating balance
Queensland achieved a record surplus of $13.9 billion in 2022–23 following on from the prior record surplus of $4.3 billion in the previous year. Stronger revenue, primarily driven by continued high commodity prices, has improved the fiscal outlook for 2023–24.
A General Government Sector net operating deficit of $138 million is forecast for 2023–24, an improvement of $2.044 billion compared to the operating deficit of $2.182 billion forecast at the time of the 2023–24 Budget.
Modest operating surpluses are forecast for the General Government Sector across the remainder of the forward estimates as coal prices continue to normalise and the impact of higher royalty revenue in the near-term impacts Queensland’s share of GST in later years.
Key revenues are stronger than forecast in the 2023–24 Budget driven by royalties in 2023–24 and stronger transfer duty and land tax from 2024–25 onwards. Supported by the improved revenue outlook, the government has expanded its range of cost-of-living measures providing a temporary boost to the First Home Owner Grant and in 2024–25, freezing the registration fee and traffic improvement fee components of motor vehicle registration costs and freezing public transport fares in 2024.
Reconciliation with 2023–24 Budget
Table 4 provides a breakdown of the movements in the net operating balance since the 2023–24 Queensland Budget.
Table 4: Reconciliation of net operating balance, 2023–24 Budget to 2023–24 Budget Update1
| 2023–24 Update $ million |
2024–25 Projection $ million |
2025–26 Projection $ million |
2026–27 Projection $ million |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023–24 Budget net operating balance | (2,182) | 135 | 206 | 377 |
| Royalty and land rents revisions2 | 4,256 | 542 | 180 | (192) |
| Taxation revisions | 272 | 591 | 857 | 1,013 |
| GST revisions | (202) | (289) | (358) | 634 |
| Net flows from the PNFC and PFC sector entities | 86 | 327 | (96) | (214) |
| Natural disaster revisions (DRFA3) | (566) | 228 | 161 | (15) |
| Revenue and Expense measures4 | (605) | (972) | (644) | (516) |
| Other parameter adjustments5 | (1,197) | (440) | (215) | (466) |
| 2023–24 Budget Update net operating balance | (138) | 122 | 91 | 621 |
1. Numbers may not add due to rounding
2. Revisions include both royalties and land rents and therefore will not align with other sections focused only on royalties.
3. Disaster Recovery Funding Arrangements
4. Reflects net operating balance impact of government decisions made since the 2023–24 Budget.
5. Refers to adjustments largely of a non–policy nature, primarily changes in interest paid on borrowings, actuarial adjustments to superannuation liabilities, depreciation, swaps, and deferrals.
